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Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges.
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people.
Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy—often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents.
But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.
What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China—Tianjin—will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come
from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map.
What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life— facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
- Sales Rank: #233066 in Books
- Brand: PublicAffairs
- Published on: 2016-08-30
- Released on: 2016-08-30
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.50" h x 1.00" w x 5.50" l, 1.09 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 288 pages
Features
Review
A BookPal Best Business Book of 2015
“Danger! Opportunity! In this snack from the business-class galley, three McKinsey Global Institute researchers serve up a view of a future that ‘presents difficult, often existential challenges to leaders of companies, organizations, cities, and countries.'… Libertarians may squall, but investors just beginning to look at emerging market trends may find value in this book.” –Kirkus Reviews
“An intriguing work for those interested in the business impacts of globalization.” –Library Journal
“What's unique is how the book ties these four major forces together in a book that's packed with insights and anecdotes while remaining free of management-speak…What this book excels at is quickly summarizing these forces and the challenges they pose to businesses and policy makers. And using real-world examples to illustrate these forces.” –Global by Design
“Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel offer a stimulating analysis of the major trends that might make or break nations. By combining data from disparate fields, they make a compelling argument about the disruptive forces that are re-shaping the world before our eyes.” –BusinessWorld
“A timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy...What sets No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work.” –ValueWalk
“As a new book, titled No Ordinary Disruption, based on research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, notes: ‘A radically different world is forming. The operating system of the world is being rewritten even as we speak. It doesn't come in a splashy new release. It evolves, unfolds, and often explodes.' Authors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel add: ‘Technology–from the printing press to the steam engine and the Internet–has always been a great force in overturning the status quo. The difference today is the sheer ubiquity of the technology in our lives and the speed of the change.'” –Singapore Straits Times
"No Ordinary Disruption is no ordinary management book. Everyone in and around business and technology has heard about disruption for awhile now, but the way Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel dissect the phenomenon and give it meaning is truly new and exciting. They not only provide a prescient diagnosis of what's to come, but also offer compelling thoughts on how we succeed in a world that's moving faster and faster every day. The massive changes they describe can be overwhelming, but they do a remarkable job of inspiring us to confront them with intellect, humanity, and a profound optimism about our future." –Eric Schmidt,Google Executive Chairman
"A compelling and rigorous illustration of how the pace of change in the last two decades has grown by orders of magnitude. Leaders from all spheres must now face up to these developments, and change their old models and processes for decision-making to handle the massive increase in shorter term volatility -- while still keeping their eyes on the longer term. Important reading for policy-makers, financiers, industrialists and NGOs interested in updating their worldview and making it fit for modern purpose." –Andrew Mackenzie,CEO of BHP Billiton
About the Author
Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel are the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, the business and economics arm of the global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.
Richard Dobbs, based in London, has led research on global economic trends, including urbanization, resource markets, capital markets, lifestyle diseases, productivity, and growth. He is a coauthor of Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance and has taught at the Said Business School at Oxford University.
Dr. James Manyika, based in Silicon Valley since 1994, has led research on the global economy, disruptive technologies, the digital economy, and productivity. He is the author of a book on robotics as well as technical and business articles. He was appointed by President Obama as the vice chair of the President's Global Development Council. He is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and is on advisory boards at Harvard, UC Berkeley, and Oxford, where he was a research fellow.
Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, based in China since 1985, has led research on urbanization, the global economy, sustainability, and productivity. He also leads McKinsey's Cities Special Initiative and is cochair of the Urban China Initiative. He has authored four books on China, most recently The One Hour China Book, and is an adjunct professor at the China-European International Business School.
Most helpful customer reviews
49 of 51 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointingly ordinary in its descriptions
By Mark P. McDonald
McKinsey seeks to pull together all of the forces that seek to pull apart business strategies. The result is a surprisingly flat description that rehashes past McKinsey research reports than offer a new way to look at the world and the relevance of strategic choices and investments. The four trends are below:
Trend 1: The locus of economic activity is shifting to emerging markets like China, India, Asia and Africa
Trend 2: Technology's impact on the economy is accelerating
Trend 3: Demographics, the aging of the population is shifting demands
Trend 4: Connectedness as trade, capital, people and information flow across national boarders
Each trend is treated in a formulaic way, following a standard structure with slavish adherence. You can extract the books outline which should give you and idea of the limitations of the book's story telling or information value.
Overall, this book is filled with factoids and other little nuggets, many previously published by McKinsey's Global Institute. So if you are looking for new insight, you will not find it here. The discussions of each trend are interesting in their own ways, but the prose is rather bland and expository rather than telling an engaging story that drives understanding or action.
The book's prescriptions are surprisingly simple -- mostly around do better -- rather thank do things differently.
Overall not recommended if you are looking for new ideas. It may be helpful for others to re-enforce their strategic decisions, particularly if those decisions are not too radical.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Business leadership has never been easy, but it becomes especially difficult when more of ...
By Ian Mann
Business leadership has never been easy, but it becomes especially difficult when more of what you thought you knew, turns out to be wrong or somewhat off the mark. I am not referring here to data, but rather the shifts in direction that some impactful changes are making.
American consumers have always led the world in holiday consumption, now China’s consumers do. The world’s largest oil producer is no longer Saudi Arabia or Russia, but the United States. WhatsApp, bought for $19 billion, is worth more than the Standard Bank Group, and with only 55 employees. The current leader in space exploration is India, which launched a spacecraft into orbit around Mars for less than the cost of a science-fiction movie - $78m.
Author Richard Dobbs of the global consulting firm McKinsey, has identified four “great disruptive forces” which are both easy to recognize and to accept. What is more difficult, is grasping the full impact of these forces and their second- or third-order knock-on effects.
The first of these disruptive forces is the “Age of Urbanization” we have entered.
We will see nearly half of global GDP growth coming from 440 cities in emerging markets by 2025. Mumbai, Dubai, and Shanghai, will be among these, but so will Hsinchu, in northern Taiwan, with advanced electronics and high-tech, Brazil’s Santa Catarina state, with electronics and vehicle manufacturing. The GDP of Tianjin was about the size of Stockholm, but by 2025 its GDP should be the same as the whole of Sweden!
Huge consumption growth will be coming from cities that are hard to locate on a map today, such as Kumasi, in Ghana. In fast-growing cities like this, people will see their first movie, have their first taste of fast-food, their first experience of the Internet, their first full medical check-up, and their first bank account. In other words, their first primarily urban experiences. Cities have always attracted the talented and educated, and these 440 cities will do so too.
The downside to this movement of people is the problem of underdeveloped business and physical infrastructure, and the huge costs to companies these limitations impose.
In Mercer’s Annual Cost of Living survey, the most expensive city for business was not San Francisco or Tokyo, but Luanda in Angola. Here, the shortage of quality office space and of quality housing, poor public services and poor supply chains, together with underdeveloped infrastructure, impose huge costs to businesses.
The second disruptive force is the “acceleration in the scope, scale, and economic impact of technology.”
The difference today is the sheer ubiquity of technology in our lives, and the speed of change.
“There have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II,” according to the futurist and computer scientist, Raymond Kurzweil. Now try to imagine the next 32 “doublings”.
20 years ago, 3% percent of the world’s population had a mobile phone, and 1% used the Internet. “Today, two-thirds of the world’s population has access to a mobile phone and one-third of all humans are able to communicate on the Internet,” Dobbs reports.
With technology we are seeing the very building blocks of things change. New materials are being created that have attributes of enormous strength and elasticity, as well as capabilities such as self-healing and self-cleaning.
Technology is now able to create economic progress for billions faster than would possible without the mobile Internet.
The third disruptive force is that the world’s population is getting older.
To replace each generation requires 2.1 children per woman. About 60 percent of the world’s population live in countries with fertility rates below the replacement rate. Thailand’s fertility rate, for example, has fallen from 5 in the 1970s to 1.4 today.
(The consequence of a greying world, is irrelevant to South Africa despite its relatively young population, because so many of our trading partners will be greying.)
Employers will have to see their older employees not as legacy costs, but as assets and resources. In Japan, companies like Toyota, have started re-employment programmes that enable retiring workers to apply for positions in Toyota or its affiliates. The company rehires about half of its retiring employees to retain their skills and experience. In return, the retirees have an income and social interaction on a part-time basis.
The focus of consumer companies today on the 25-to-54 demographic will have to shift as older consumers, still active and consuming, make up a larger portion of the market. Fujitsu for example, produced a prototype walking stick with a built-in navigation system that helps people direct the user, and also allows them to be tracked.
The fourth disruptive force is the connectedness of the world through the movement of capital, people, and information.
For the past decades, oil was the main commodity moving around the world. Today it is a different commodity – money, which does not require a tanker or a container ship to move smoothly about the globe.
Oil is shipped from Congo to China, soybeans from Brazil are shipped to Malaysia, Indian pharmaceuticals are shipped to Algeria. China’s bilateral trade with Africa has grown from about $10 billion in 2000 to nearly $ 200 billion in 2012.
Twenty years ago, the prototypical traded object may have been a $3 T-shirt. Now it could be a 30-cent pill, a $3 e-book, or a $300 iPhone.
The number of people living outside their birth countries has grown from 75 million in 1960 to 232 million in 2013. The labour market, is becoming truly global at all income and skills levels for the first time.
These four disruptive forces will affect every market and every sector of the world economy, directly or indirectly. “Our world will change radically from the one in which many of us grew up, prospered, and formed the intuitions that are so vital to our decision-making.”
These discontinuities will not only bring challenges to our ways of living and thinking, they have lifted one billion people out of extreme poverty between 1990 and 2010. In the future these discontinuities will help propel even more into the $10-a-day, consuming class, in the next two decades.
“The new world will be richer, more urbanized, more skilled, and healthier than the one it replaces,” Dodds predicts. This, however, will require that leaders act appropriately to what is actually happening.
This is a stimulating book, filled not only with insights, but with plenty of suggestions for reacting. Read it slowly.
Readability Light --+-- Serious
Insights High -+--- Low
Practical High --+--- Low
*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Bold, Insightful & Intelligent.
By Fadi Hammadeh
This is one of the best books I have read on the macro disruptive trends shaping our world today and their implications over the next decade or so. It is a well researched and meticulous strategy analysis supported by relevant data and anecdotal evidence. A must read for every executive who takes it upon himself to influence the future of his organization and contribute to its corporate survival.
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